So Nigeria Has Sneezed. Will Ghana Catch A Cold?
- By: Rodney Nkrumah-Boateng | Infoboxdaily
- Apr 2, 2015
- 5 min read
It is now over.
Over the weekend, those Ghanaians who had no idea what the names and/or symbols of the two main parties in the Nigerian election were came to know, thanks to the Ghanaian corner of Facebook being converted to the 37th state of the federal republic AND an election monitoring centre. On the one hand, NPP enthusiasts are delirious with joy at the stunning, unprecedented win by Gen. Buhari, pointing to this as a sign of things to come in Ghana next year, whilst NDC sympathizers have played the result down as being irrelevant in the scheme of things. To a large extent, supporters of both Ghanaian parties are both right and wrong.
It would be foolish and naïve for NPP advocates to predict that what has happened in Nigeria will happen in Ghana just like that. The dynamics, issues and other factors in the two countries are not the same, notwithstanding the remarkable coincidences that have been doing the rounds on social media, such as the colours and symbols of both the ruling PDP and NDC, the similarity of ages between the two incumbents and the two opposition leaders, the political trajectory of the two incumbent leaders, etc etc. Of course, as NDC members correctly point out in an attempt to pour cold water on the euphoria, there are equally many differences between the two incumbent leaders and their parties.
The claims of winds of change, without more, are futile. It appears these winds being bandied about need expensive, giant turbines to propel them. The NPP cannot sit back, ride on the back of what has happened in Nigeria and hope that a miracle will occur suo moto (on its own) next year. Loads of hard work, planning and strategizing will need to go into the mix if the party seriously wishes to capture power next year.
That notwithstanding, it would be very naïve of NDC commentators to completely disregard what has happened in Nigeria. Prior to the elections there, it had been presumed by many that it would be African electioneering business as usual, the incumbent abusing its incumbency advantage and then probably doing all it could to ensure it did not lose the election. After all, no incumbent president had ever been unseated in Nigeria. Ghana has so far ( in the fourth republic) only managed to remove one party from office for another, but only when the incumbent has come to the end of his maximum tenure and a fresh face from the incumbent party is on the ballot box.
There is no doubt that what has happened in Nigeria has given the NPP a huge psychological boost that could fire up its resolve to achieve what has been achieved in Nigeria and has no precedent in our 4th Republic. Now, the party smells blood and realizes that it is not impossible for a 72 year-old man to capture the presidency of an African country after several tries, a template Buhari has provided. To appreciate the importance of psychological boosts in politics, it is perhaps useful to delve into contemporary history.
The attainment of independence in 1957 by the then Gold Coast was clearly a huge inspiration for activists in other countries in sub-Saharan Africa and no doubt had a role to play in the rapid decolonization process on the continent up to the mid-1960s, even though their economies and political dynamics were different. Interestingly, earlier on, in the immediate post-Second World War period, the gathering momentum for independence had been influenced by the attainment in 1947 of independence by India and Pakistan. The witnessing by African World War II soldiers of white men dying like flies on battlefields and the relatively easy availability of white women to sleep with also broke the myth surrounding the supposed superiority of white men and provided a huge psychological boost to the pro-independence movement in the post-war period when the soldiers returned home with their tales.
Following the independence wave and the fashion for one-party states came the wave of military coups, starting with Eyadema in Togo in 1963 and continuing into the 1970s. Undoubtedly this inspired many militarists on the continent, especially in West Africa, with East Africa becoming remarkably untouched by this scourge. Again, the dynamics of the circumstances of the individual countries were different, but one cannot claim that the coups were completely independent of each other.
Then came another wave-the agitation for multi-party democracy at the end of the 1980s. Again this spread across the continent. Once again, there seemed to be a domino effect in play here. In Eastern Europe, for instance, the fall of the Soviet Union witnessed remarkable speed of the domino effect in demands for democracy, starting in 1989 with Polish workers demand in Gdansk and the Solidarity movement. North of the African continent, the Arab Spring demonstrations of recent memory give credence to the fact that especially in the era of modern instant communication and 24-hour rolling news, it is hard to isolate events and box them within a geographical space and claim there will be no spillover effects. Inspiration is infectious.
From the above, it is obvious that the NDC cannot afford to ignore the happenings in Nigeria and dismiss the euphoria among opposition elements, if it will consider history as a useful guide. Underestimating the political value of these things is careless, if not negligent. Of course, the dynamics are different. But in Nigeria, one recurring theme of the campaign was corruption allegations against the government. In Ghana too, many corruption claims have been thrown at the government. The NDC government needs to work extremely hard to prevent these claims from sinking into the psyche of the electorate. In politics, it does not really matter whether allegations of corruption are proven in court or not. What matters is whether the people believe them and perceive them to be true.
Government must realize, quickly, that a fired-up, galvanized, opposition is deadly if it is well-organised, focused, and determined, as Nigeria’s ruling party belatedly found to its cost. The lesson from Nigeria is clear; incumbency may not always protect you, its wonderful advantages notwithstanding. If the NDC cannot learn from this, then God help them.
And the NPP had better get its act together and stop the internal bickering and pettiness and lazy minor accidents, if it is serious about capturing power. Having tons of hope that Ghana will witness a Nigeria moment cometh the hour and that the winds of change will blow on their own is not quite enough on its own.
After all, hope does not cook yam.
Source: Infoboxdaily.com
By: Rodney Nkrumah-Boateng
